Subseasonal forecasts of precipitation over maritime continent in boreal summer and the sources of predictability

Lyu, Yang and Zhu, Shoupeng and Zhi, Xiefei and Dong, Fu and Zhu, Chengying and Ji, Luying and Fan, Yi (2022) Subseasonal forecasts of precipitation over maritime continent in boreal summer and the sources of predictability. Frontiers in Earth Science, 10. ISSN 2296-6463

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Abstract

In this study, subseasonal precipitation forecast skills over Maritime Continent in boreal summer are investigated for the ECMWF and CMA models involved in the S2S Project. Results indicate that the ECMWF model shows generally superior forecast performances than CMA, which is characterized by lower errors and higher correlations compared with the observations. Meanwhile, ECMWF tends to produce wet biases with increasing lead times, while the mean errors of CMA are revealed to be approximately constant throughout lead times of 2–4 weeks over most areas. Besides, the temporal correlations between model outputs and observations obviously decrease with growing lead times, with a high-low distribution presented from north to south. In addition, the roles of large-scale drivers like ENSO and BSISO in modulating subseasonal precipitation forecast skills are also assessed in the models. Both ECMWF and CMA can reasonably capture the ENSO related precipitation anomalies for all lead times, while their capabilities of capturing BSISO related precipitation anomalies decrease with growing lead times, which is more obvious in CMA. The enhanced subseasonal precipitation forecast skills mainly respond to the BSISO associated precipitation variability. For most MC areas such as southern Indochina, western Indonesia, Philippines and the eastern ocean, the forecast skills of both ECMWF and CMA can be improved to a great extent by enhancing the capture of BSISO related precipitation anomalies, with the temporal correlations for both ECMWF and CMA increased by about 0.15 for lead times of 3–4 weeks. It provides an opportunity window for the models to improve precipitation forecasts on the subseasonal timescale.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: East Asian Archive > Geological Science
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email support@eastasianarchive.com
Date Deposited: 22 Mar 2023 10:19
Last Modified: 14 Jun 2024 12:59
URI: http://library.eprintdigipress.com/id/eprint/288

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